Okay I was totally WRONG in my previous analysis. Even with all those bearish divergences, the EUR exploded upwards. Ah well, Aaliyah always said if you fall, pick up yourself up and try again. Let's take a look at the daily chart. Even with the upward move, the trend is still down. It looks like the 50% retracement is a strong resistance level. Based on the relative extreme levels of Stochastics and TRIX, it's possible that EUR go have a little bit more upside to it, since both indicators have not turned downward yet. I do think the upward move is over though and looking to short near the 50% retracement level, so let's see where a good short entry would be. I'm only looking to short because the trend is my friend and I don't backstab my friends by going against them.




Looking at the dealer chart, EUR is in a serious uptrend. Check out that upward slope! I have drawn support and resistance lines, the thicker the lines the stronger the line (duh). I'm not even going to think of shorting unless the price breaks the upward trendline. I think a good short trade would be enter if EUR closes below 1.2300 and even better and safer trade would be to enter on a close below 1.2250. A close below 2250 would probably drop all the way back down to at least 2088.



Now why do I think the 50% retracement level is where EUR has topped out? Well on the 1hr charts are once bearish divergences galore. Even though that doesn't neccessarily mean anything if you look at the previous signs of bearish divergence where EUR decided to tease us toward the downside then shot right back up. I think 1.2400 is the peak though.



I am going to enter a short trade at 1.2285 with a 50 pip stop loss to 1.2335 and target 1.2085. That's a good 4:1 reward-to-risk ratio.